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A Nuclear Showdown: OKLO's Bold Vision vs. CEG's Proven Power
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Key Takeaways
Oklo is developing micro reactors with contracts targeting AI data centers and the U.S. Air Force.
CEG secures long-term power deals with Microsoft and Meta and plans a $4.5B Calpine acquisition.
Oklo faces execution, fuel, and financing risks, while CEG contends with aging plants and high costs.
In an era defined by the power-hungry artificial intelligence revolution, the nuclear energy sector has found itself squarely in the spotlight. With the U.S. government, major tech giants and Wall Street all throwing their weight behind nuclear expansion, investors are now faced with a choice between established industry giants and promising, yet speculative, newcomers. Two names at opposite ends of this spectrum, Constellation Energy (CEG - Free Report) and Oklo Inc. (OKLO - Free Report) , offer a fascinating case study. Both companies are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for clean, reliable power, but their business models, financial health, and risk profiles couldn't be more different.
Constellation Energy is the largest U.S. nuclear power plant operator, a mature and dominant force in the industry. Meanwhile, Oklo is a next-generation fission company, a pre-revenue firm with big plans to build and sell smaller nuclear power plants at scale. A close look at their fundamentals is crucial for anyone considering an investment in this space.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of the two stocks to determine which one is a better investment now.
The Case for OKLO Stock
Oklo’s investment thesis is built on an ambitious, forward-looking vision. The company, which recently went public via a SPAC, is a next-generation fission firm working on micro nuclear reactors that will produce reliable power. Instead of selling the power plants themselves, Oklo plans to sell the power directly to customers through long-term contracts. This model is designed to create recurring revenue streams and a more streamlined regulatory pathway.
The company has already shown some strong market validation. A partnership with Liberty Energy, for example, is aimed at creating a hybrid nuclear-gas power solution for large-scale users, while a deal with Vertiv will integrate Oklo’s reactors with advanced cooling for AI data centers. A key milestone was the selection of Oklo by the U.S. Air Force to provide power, which serves as a powerful endorsement of its technology. The company has also secured an impressive order pipeline of 14 GW, which it projects could support $5 billion in annual revenues by 2028. To fund these plans, Oklo raised a substantial $400+ million, giving it a financial runway to cover licensing and initial buildouts until 2028.
However, a big risk is the execution burden of scaling nuclear projects. Oklo’s plans are still in the early stages, with its first Aurora powerhouse aiming to be operational by late 2027 or early 2028. Building and commissioning reactors is an incredibly complex process, and nuclear projects have a long history of budget overruns and delays. The company will also need to secure HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) fuel at a large scale, which presents its own set of challenges. Given its capital-intensive business model, further financing may be necessary if delays occur, which would dilute existing shareholders.
The Case for CEG Stock
Constellation is an established industry giant, a much safer long-term investment. Its foundation is built on a dominant scale, with a fleet of nuclear power plants that is 61% larger than its closest competitor. The company is actively solidifying its position as an energy titan for the AI era. It recently signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft, and a similar deal with Meta, securing revenues for decades. The company also made strategic acquisitions, such as the pending $4.5 billion deal to buy natural gas and geothermal powerhouse Calpine. This move would create the largest clean energy firm and expand its footprint into power-hungry, tech-heavy states like Texas and California.
Wall Street loves Constellation for its ability to raise its dividend and expand its bottom line. It has increased its dividend by 10% in 2025 after a 25% increase in 2024. However, CEG is not without its own challenges. While its acquisitions expand its scale, they temporarily drain cash flow. For instance, the company’s free cash flow is about $2 billion negative on a trailing 12-month basis due to capital expenditures and acquisition costs. With 69% of its generating resources in nuclear and the fleet averaging more than 40 years of age, Constellation also faces rising maintenance and upgrade costs. Additionally, the company is susceptible to regulatory and political risks, as nuclear energy remains a sensitive topic.
Price Performance
OKLO’s stock has had a wild ride, skyrocketing more than 822% in a year, a clear sign of the speculative frenzy surrounding next-generation nuclear. In contrast, CEG has had a solid but much more restrained gain of 61% over the same period.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Valuation Comparison
When it comes to valuation, the difference is stark. Oklo is a pre-revenue company, so traditional metrics are less useful, but it trades at a high 13.11 price-to-book (P/B) ratio. This figure reflects heavy investor optimism and a future that is not yet certain. On the other hand, CEG, a well-established company with a track record of earnings and revenues, trades at a much more reasonable 7.2X P/B, making its valuation much more attractive given its proven business model and dominant scale.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
EPS Outlook
The earnings picture also highlights the vast difference between the two. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Oklo’s 2025 EPS is a loss of 50 cents with no sales this year, and a further drop to -56 cents is expected in 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Constellation, in stark contrast, is projected to have a 9% year-over-year gain in its 2025 EPS and a 26% gain in 2026. The company’s earnings per share are estimated at $9.41 in 2025 and $11.86 in 2026.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Conclusion
When we weigh the fundamentals, Constellation Energy holds a clear advantage over Oklo as an investment. While Oklo presents an exciting, high-upside opportunity, its pre-revenue status, execution risks, and a valuation that is already stretched to the limit make it a highly speculative bet. Constellation, on the other hand, is a proven industry leader with a stable business, a strong earnings profile, and strategic partnerships that secure revenue for decades. For these reasons, CEG is the more prudent investment right now. It carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) while Oklo, with its uncertain near-term earnings and execution risks, is a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Image: Bigstock
A Nuclear Showdown: OKLO's Bold Vision vs. CEG's Proven Power
Key Takeaways
In an era defined by the power-hungry artificial intelligence revolution, the nuclear energy sector has found itself squarely in the spotlight. With the U.S. government, major tech giants and Wall Street all throwing their weight behind nuclear expansion, investors are now faced with a choice between established industry giants and promising, yet speculative, newcomers. Two names at opposite ends of this spectrum, Constellation Energy (CEG - Free Report) and Oklo Inc. (OKLO - Free Report) , offer a fascinating case study. Both companies are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for clean, reliable power, but their business models, financial health, and risk profiles couldn't be more different.
Constellation Energy is the largest U.S. nuclear power plant operator, a mature and dominant force in the industry. Meanwhile, Oklo is a next-generation fission company, a pre-revenue firm with big plans to build and sell smaller nuclear power plants at scale. A close look at their fundamentals is crucial for anyone considering an investment in this space.
Let’s dive deep and closely compare the fundamentals of the two stocks to determine which one is a better investment now.
The Case for OKLO Stock
Oklo’s investment thesis is built on an ambitious, forward-looking vision. The company, which recently went public via a SPAC, is a next-generation fission firm working on micro nuclear reactors that will produce reliable power. Instead of selling the power plants themselves, Oklo plans to sell the power directly to customers through long-term contracts. This model is designed to create recurring revenue streams and a more streamlined regulatory pathway.
The company has already shown some strong market validation. A partnership with Liberty Energy, for example, is aimed at creating a hybrid nuclear-gas power solution for large-scale users, while a deal with Vertiv will integrate Oklo’s reactors with advanced cooling for AI data centers. A key milestone was the selection of Oklo by the U.S. Air Force to provide power, which serves as a powerful endorsement of its technology. The company has also secured an impressive order pipeline of 14 GW, which it projects could support $5 billion in annual revenues by 2028. To fund these plans, Oklo raised a substantial $400+ million, giving it a financial runway to cover licensing and initial buildouts until 2028.
However, a big risk is the execution burden of scaling nuclear projects. Oklo’s plans are still in the early stages, with its first Aurora powerhouse aiming to be operational by late 2027 or early 2028. Building and commissioning reactors is an incredibly complex process, and nuclear projects have a long history of budget overruns and delays. The company will also need to secure HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) fuel at a large scale, which presents its own set of challenges. Given its capital-intensive business model, further financing may be necessary if delays occur, which would dilute existing shareholders.
The Case for CEG Stock
Constellation is an established industry giant, a much safer long-term investment. Its foundation is built on a dominant scale, with a fleet of nuclear power plants that is 61% larger than its closest competitor. The company is actively solidifying its position as an energy titan for the AI era. It recently signed a 20-year power purchase agreement with Microsoft, and a similar deal with Meta, securing revenues for decades. The company also made strategic acquisitions, such as the pending $4.5 billion deal to buy natural gas and geothermal powerhouse Calpine. This move would create the largest clean energy firm and expand its footprint into power-hungry, tech-heavy states like Texas and California.
Wall Street loves Constellation for its ability to raise its dividend and expand its bottom line. It has increased its dividend by 10% in 2025 after a 25% increase in 2024. However, CEG is not without its own challenges. While its acquisitions expand its scale, they temporarily drain cash flow. For instance, the company’s free cash flow is about $2 billion negative on a trailing 12-month basis due to capital expenditures and acquisition costs. With 69% of its generating resources in nuclear and the fleet averaging more than 40 years of age, Constellation also faces rising maintenance and upgrade costs. Additionally, the company is susceptible to regulatory and political risks, as nuclear energy remains a sensitive topic.
Price Performance
OKLO’s stock has had a wild ride, skyrocketing more than 822% in a year, a clear sign of the speculative frenzy surrounding next-generation nuclear. In contrast, CEG has had a solid but much more restrained gain of 61% over the same period.
Valuation Comparison
When it comes to valuation, the difference is stark. Oklo is a pre-revenue company, so traditional metrics are less useful, but it trades at a high 13.11 price-to-book (P/B) ratio. This figure reflects heavy investor optimism and a future that is not yet certain. On the other hand, CEG, a well-established company with a track record of earnings and revenues, trades at a much more reasonable 7.2X P/B, making its valuation much more attractive given its proven business model and dominant scale.
EPS Outlook
The earnings picture also highlights the vast difference between the two. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Oklo’s 2025 EPS is a loss of 50 cents with no sales this year, and a further drop to -56 cents is expected in 2026.
Constellation, in stark contrast, is projected to have a 9% year-over-year gain in its 2025 EPS and a 26% gain in 2026. The company’s earnings per share are estimated at $9.41 in 2025 and $11.86 in 2026.
Conclusion
When we weigh the fundamentals, Constellation Energy holds a clear advantage over Oklo as an investment. While Oklo presents an exciting, high-upside opportunity, its pre-revenue status, execution risks, and a valuation that is already stretched to the limit make it a highly speculative bet. Constellation, on the other hand, is a proven industry leader with a stable business, a strong earnings profile, and strategic partnerships that secure revenue for decades. For these reasons, CEG is the more prudent investment right now. It carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) while Oklo, with its uncertain near-term earnings and execution risks, is a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.